Part 1 - How bad can it be?
Hey Prompt Entrepreneur,
In this playbook we’re tackling a subject that has been an increasingly hot topic in early 2024: how AI is going to impact work.
And more specifically: your job.
We’ll cover:
- Part 1: How bad can it be?
- Part 2: Future proofing
- Part 3: Be the disruptor
- Part 4: Skill up
- Part 5: Can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em
First up a warning.
This first Part is going to be quite scary and negative. Sorry!
This is because I need you to understand what’s coming. And not bury your head in the stand.
The result of the guide (4/5 Parts) is about the exciting opportunities that AI will bring us. And you specifically if you wish it.
But to get there first we need to look at why AI is such a big deal on work and jobs.
AI is here and making a mess already
If you’ve been watching the news recently you’ll have seen waves of layoffs starting in 2023 and rolling into 2024.
Most are in high tech companies but few industries are immune.
It’s starting in tech because this is where AI is immediately and obviously useful. AI is better at these sort of jobs and so can be easily integrated into tech companies.
But AI will roll from tech companies down to others in short order. For instance the film industry is already bracing for the impact of AI on writing and performance - hence the importance of AI in the WGA and SAG strike demands in 2023.
Here’s the thing though.
AI is here. The genie is out of the bottle.
It’s no good to try to shove it back in.
The best recent(ish) parallel is the internet.
There were detractors of the internet when it first became widespread.
And there are industries that have been smashed to pieces by the internet. Travels agents, record stores and bookshops are some obvious examples.
We’re going to see a similar if not larger shift with AI as we saw with the internet.
What industries are affected?
A question I get a lot is which industries are “safe” and which are most at risk.
Honestly, naming truly “safe” industries is really hard. My best answer is dog groomer I’ll talk about why in the next part.
What lots of people (incorrectly) assume is that AI will demolish low paid blue collar jobs first.
This has been the case with most technological shifts in history - the plough, loom, automobile etc. Generally industrial technological changes have automated physical work. Agricultural and craftspeople’s work.
AI is different.
It’s flipped the script. Because AI is about the “I”: intelligence.
AI is about cognitive rather than physical work. And as such it most affects white collar jobs. Not blue collar jobs like most technologies.
Here’s some research from Goldman Sachs (source):
It’s the white collar, office and professional work that is at risk. This is tricky for people to grok.
Yes but not me!
You’ve probably seen videos on Instagram or Tiktok where an interviewer in the street goes up to a member of the public and asks “what do you do for work?”
Member of the public: “oh I work in finance doing blah blah”
Interviewer: “wow what interesting work you have. Do you think AI will take jobs?”
Member of the public: “absolutely. It’s so clever. It’s going to revolutionise work and put a lot of poor people out of work”
Interviewer: “And will AI take your job?”
Member of the public: “haha god no, what I do is too complex and can’t be done by an AI.”
It happens again and again. It doesn’t matter what the person does.
They always think AI is someone else’s problem and that they are immune.
Ruh-roh.
I had an example this on Tiktok last week:
OK I was a bit mean. But he was being very cocky (and kept being cocky in comments) so I don’t feel too bad.
Planning consultants fall under legal/architectural (2nd and 3rd highest at risk in the chart above). Urban designer is 3rd highest. I won’t go into details about why exactly (it’ll take a while) but these two are definitely “gulp” worthy! Safest is property developer here - so thankfully he has 3 streams!
What about role?
OK let’s use a prompt to do an analysis of your role and provide some insight into whether it’s at risk.
We’ll use this in the next Parts to future proof your role.
This’ll work whether you are in a 9-5 or run a business.
Act as a tool helping me future proof my role against AI.
First I want to analyse what parts of my role are at risk of being replaced by AI.
Ask me, in order, these questions:
1. What is your job description?
2. What is your company?
3. What do you spend most of your working day doing - use verbs like "writing, responding to emails, taking meeting notes" etc.
4. What is your industry?
Use this information to analyse how at risk to AI my role is.
Do no pull punches. The purpose of this analysis is to lay the foundations for future proofing my role. Therefore I require an honest appraisal first. Do not tell me about the positives of AI - it's irrelevant to this analysis.Here’s an example using dog grooming:
And here’s an example using data entry:
The prompt is designed to be honest. Otherwise ChatGPT will naturally tell you not to worry and how great AI is. Which…isn’t very helpful!
Use this prompt and your honest answers so that at least you know what we need to be working on in the rest of this guide’s Parts.
Premium Prompt - But it’ll make more jobs right?
But it’ll make more jobs!
A common counterargument is that AI will create jobs.
Absolutely it will.
Humans are amazing at muddling through. We’ve been doing it for quite a while now.
The argument here is that whilst looms removed the work of weavers other jobs were made by the Industrial Revolution.
This is absolutely true. With each shift we (as humanity) find more work for humanity as a whole to do. It all sorta works out. For the most part.
But.
And it’s a bit but.
Those individual weavers are still screwed.
Same with the miners, the steelworkers, the farriers and other entire professions that get erased by new tech.
Humanity will be fine. Hell, we’ll probably do well. I’m pro-AI for this reason.
But I also want to make sure you, as an individual, don’t get caught with your pants down.
It’s like musical chairs but the penalty for losing is a couple decades of re-skilling or unemployment.
What are these new jobs then?
And here’s the biggie here. The numbers don’t stack up.
The World Economic Forum predicts a rise in demand for AI and machine learning specialists. The people who build, deploy and maintain the AIs.
Currently predictions are that 2.6 million new AI jobs will be added by 2027.
Sounds great!
Until we remember that Goldman Sachs figure above that 300 million jobs will be affected by AI.
This makes sense when you think about it.
As an example, Klarna just announced results of their new customer service chatbot. Turns out it can do the work of 700 full time agents and the quality of work is higher. The project is expected to drive an additional $40m profit this year.
Those 700 customer service jobs are done for. That much is clear.
But how many new jobs have been created to manage the new chatbot?
My guess - 10? Maybe less.
This is a small example but the pattern will be the same everywhere. Once AI replaces roles only a small number of humans are needed to “look after” the AI in its new role. And as AI improves that number will also diminish.
Exactly the same as factories. Initially hand crafting required huge amounts of manual labour. This was replaced by machines run by human supervision - still requiring human labour, simply augmented by the machine. As factory technology improved less and less human labour was required. Visit a factory nowadays and you’ll not find many people!
Pulling it together
OK this was quite brutal, I’ll admit.
But there’s a reason. I need you on board that AI is life-changing.
Next we’ll be looking at how we won’t just survive but will thrive.
With massive shifts come massive opportunities. If you are ready.
A reminder of what we’ll be covering :
- Part 1: How bad can it be?
- Part 2: Future proofing
- Part 3: Be the disruptor
- Part 4: Skill up
- Part 5: Can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em